December 6, 2010

Whether, Weather…

To leave, or not to leave, that’s still the question.

The problem isn’t so much not knowing what the weather might bring, but the fact we have way too many opinions, forecasts, weather charts and grib files to choose between. And none of the models agree. It’s almost enough to make me long for the good ‘ol days: Back when we could pull down one weather fax—then make our own best amateur weatherman guess. For better or worse.

But know we have a deluge of information. And the best case scenario really is the best case. It’s a perfect 12 knots on the beam, rising to 20 as our overnight passage continues. The seas should be between 3-5’, probably a bit steeply spaced but comfortable enough.

But that is just one weather report. We also looked at four more… And this is where it gets confusing.

Weather is a guessing game at best and it’s amazing how many different scenarios can be extrapolated from one set of satellite pictures. One model has a full blown norther developing tonight—definitely not conditions we want to sail in. Another has the wind rising to NW 18-24 in the afternoon and NW 20-26 overnight—which might be fine, depending on the seas… But the Sea of Cortez rarely has pleasant seas—there is just too much tidal current.

So maybe we’ll wait. But waiting also has its own issues. Because the model we like best—the one that predicts a perfectly okay crossing—also predicts a norther blowing up later in the week. So maybe we’ll go…

I’m going to drink coffee, have a hot shower at the marina, and ponder…

Want to know where we get our Mexico weather?

Stan’s weather:

Geary’s weather:

COAMPS and GFS grib files from Sailmail

NOAA weather for the Southeast Pacific

High Seas Forecast

Fleet Weather

2 comments:

Behan said...

this used to drive us really, really crazy. usually, we opted to be uber conservative. the steep chop that can kick up in the sea just well and truly sucks, especially in the dark!

have you hiked to the apache tear trail in San Juanico? lemme know if you need info...

Diane, Evan and Maia said...

It looks like we're taking the conservative route too. Somehow neither of us could get excited about the potential for nasty seas.

We've walked from San Juanico to Ramada--is that the trail you mean? Or is there another?