August 26, 2010

Hurricane Frank

So here's the deal. If you follow Frank's track north, you'll pretty much run into us, which means that if Frank sticks to his current projected path that he will also run into us.

If you've ever been run into by a hurricane, or a tropical storm for that matter, you'll know it's not a recommended activity. High wind, heavy rain and storm surge are all bad for boats. And bad for the people who are on the boats.

So this is where it gets interesting. If you look at Frank’s probable track, most of the models have him turning a bit more back to the west and then starting to dissipate. But the thing with hurricanes is they don't necessarily follow the models. Sometimes they do the unexpected and the unforecast. The models can only predict so much. After that it’s just an educated guessing game.

So our plan is to keep monitoring Frank and high tail it north as soon as he starts to worry us. You might wonder why we don’t just go north now, but we’ve arranged to have some of our travel vaccination boosters in Santa Rosalia next week, so our plan was to stick around for those. Also, Rich from Third Day is up in San Diego and is bringing us back a few things—so we’re waiting for him to get back. And because Maia is turning nine in two weeks and we don’t want to get separated from the kid boats before her birthday…

But if Frank continues to make for us, we’ll need to reevaluate. Chances are that even if he did show up, he would be no more that a tropical depression. But hurricanes have been known to do some unexpected things. So we wait and watch, and fit in a little snorkeling and a few boat chores around the edges.

No comments: